A year ago, I gave my Top 10 Chia Predictions for 2025. As we’re already a month into 2026, let’s take a look back to see how I did.
#10 Chia will not get native Circle USD (USDC) or Tether USD (USDT) in 2025
Outcome: Correct
As predicted, neither USDC nor USDT was issued natively on the Chia blockchain in 2025.
CircuitDAO and its over-collateralized Bytecash (BYC) stablecoin did launch on mainnet in the first week of January 2026, just barely missing the 2025 cutoff. Bytecash has started minting as well and while it technically happened in 2026, I’ll count this as close enough.
I was also correct in predicting wUSDC.b from the warp.green bridge to remain the dominant stablecoin (by minted volume) in 2025. I score this overall prediction correct.
#9 New plot format released but replotting won’t start in 2025
Outcome: Correct
The new Proof of Space plot format CHIP did release in 2025 with a public reference implementation as well. But as predicted, no replotting has begun, and timelines for fork and replotting have yet to be decided.
I had predicted the CHIP would be rife with discussion and that agreement wouldn’t be reached quickly. Community discussion on timelines continues as we await an update to the proof of space CHIP with further technical improvements. I score this prediction correct.
#8 Chia Gaming proves out state channels but doesn’t get traction
Outcome: Correct
Chia Gaming released in alpha in late 2025 along with a Request for Proposal (RFP) for prospective partners. Reference examples have been built that successfully serve as a proof-of-concept for state channels that shows the feasibility of future scaling on Chia.
However, as I predicted, it hasn’t gained traction — gaming is still in alpha and there are no user-friendly interfaces available though there is active development on it. I score this prediction correct.
#7 Many DeFi primitives get built but won’t be widely used
Outcome: Correct
We did see several DeFi primitives delivered in 2025:
- Options puzzles (CHIP-45) shipped with support in Sage Wallet
- Offer Watch launched to track options activity and status
- Revocable CATs shipped (CHIP-0038)
- TibetSwap launched LPs with revocable CAT support
But as predicted, usage is minimal. Stats from Offer Watch and TibetSwap show little activity — these are essentially proof-of-concepts with broad adoption still a ways off and they are primitives that would get a lot more interesting with tokenized securities (e.g., Permuto AC/DCs) on chain to trade against. I score this prediction correct.
#6 Prefarm sales stop in 2025 but it will be leveraged for other purposes
Outcome: Incorrect
Prefarm sales did not stop in 2025 — in fact, they accelerated in XCH terms, as you can see on XCH.ninja.
The prefarm was leveraged for additional loans and ecosystem investments (similar to the Berkeley Compute and SpaceTime investments from 2024), but the primary revenue driver I anticipated, Permuto, was delayed. Without that revenue stream, CNI continued to rely on prefarm sales to fund operations. I score this prediction incorrect.
#5 Sage Wallet becomes the premier Chia wallet; Cloud Wallet gets niche use
Outcome: Correct
In 2025, the Chia Cloud Wallet went into early access release followed by a general release a few months later. They added more features throughout the year such as CAT and NFT support, and Buy XCH with ACH to increase XCH access for US users.
Sage wallet also had continuous development and updates in 2025. Highlights include the introduction of themes and theme NFTs, options contracts support, better Offers management and discovery, Clawback v2 support, revocable CAT support, and a slew of under-the-hood updates.
To assess the prediction outcome, we have some ballpark numbers to consider. Based on on-chain data, there are approximately 1,600 vaults created which is a good proxy for Cloud Wallet users. Sage Wallet usage is harder to measure directly, but it has over 10,000 downloads across all platforms (unique users would obviously be lower).
My sense is that Sage remains more popular for its cross-platform accessibility and feature-rich experience, and the data leans towards this conclusion. I’ll score this prediction correct.
#4 warp.green sees more than $100M in bridge volume
Outcome: Incorrect
Bridge volume data is publicly available on warp.green, but it’s clear we didn’t come close to $100M. 2025’s bridge volume was closer to $5.5M.
The main driver I foresaw for increased volume, Permuto AC/DCs and related tokens, did not launch in 2025. Without that catalyst, volume remained well below my prediction. I score this prediction incorrect.
#3 XCH gets listed on both Coinbase and Binance
Outcome: Incorrect
Neither Coinbase nor Binance listed XCH in 2025 nor even hinted at it. XCH continues to trade on smaller exchanges but no major CEX listings happened. I score this prediction incorrect.
#2 CNI will IPO in 2025
Outcome: Incorrect
It was said that the Chia Network IPO was waiting for significant revenue from Permuto so given delays it’s no surprise no IPO happened in 2025. However, we did get interesting insight into the previous confidential draft S-1 through their discussions with the SEC Crypto Task Force. I score this prediction incorrect.
Honorable Mention: Chia Toronto 2025 will be the biggest in-person Chia event to date
Outcome: Correct
By far, Chia Toronto 2025 was the largest Chia community meetup to date. With ninety-five registered attendees including Bram, Gene, and Thomas from Chia Network, Permuto Capital team and partners, community developers, farmers, and even a Bitcoin core developer, it was a fun and memorable milestone event.
I recapped the event here. I score this prediction correct.
#1 Chia will be home to the majority of RWAs in crypto
Outcome: Incorrect
This prediction was almost entirely dependent on Permuto launching in 2025 and bringing significant RWA volume to Chia. With the delays, RWA activity on Chia remains modest — certainly nowhere near the $15B I predicted. The most significant volume of RWAs have been Solslot DACs and Silicon Network GPU NFTs.
Meanwhile RWA volume amassed across the crypto industry from $15B at the time of prediction to over $450B today, significantly raising the bar to become a “majority”. I score this prediction incorrect.
Summary: 5/10
Well, 6/11 if you include the honorable mention.
The recurring theme for my misses was the Permuto delay. Half of my predictions (#1, #2, #4, #6, even #3) were predicated on Permuto launching and generating significant revenue and interest in 2025. Without that catalyst, those predictions all fell flat.
As Gene shared in his year end wrap up post, 2025 turned out to be a year of laying groundwork in a number of areas. Will 2026 reap the fruits of that labor? Stay tuned for my 2026 predictions!
